At the halfway point for calendar year 2023, we can form a relatively clear picture of where the year is heading. Based on YTD June 2023 sales a forecast of slightly more than 30 000 new units is feasible for the full year. This will be a marginal increase of 1.7% on comparative 2022, which is disappointing given the strong growth that the industry had experienced during the past few years, albeit focussed on the commercial segments.
Segment performance reflects that the commercial sector continues on an upward trajectory with 10% growth for the six months. Scooters performed poorly with a disappointing 33% decrease in sales, for no apparent reason. The higher priced leisure segments show an overall increase of 1.5%, but within this segment there are fluctuations varying from -25% to +29%, making it difficult to predict trends. Anecdotal evidence suggests that some sales have been lost due to consumers re-directing spend to solar/invertor home installations. ATV/Side x Side sales are down 15% compared to 2022.
Electric motorcycles and 3 wheelers continue to form a statistically insignificant portion of the market, but the 307% increase in registrations over the past 6 months suggests that importers are finding some appetite amongst commercial fleet owners to try EV.
Used motorcycle sales statistics are only available up to April 2023 YTD, which is up 10.7% on the corresponding period for 2022.
The industry view is that trading conditions will continue to be tough, given the high interest rates and likelihood of poor if any economic growth. Under the circumstances, very little growth is expected for the rest of the year.
